United Phosphorus: Is Short-Term Bottom in Place?

I would like to assure all the readers who have provided affirmative comments regarding the issue of trading ideas on the blog, that I am not going to stop posting stock specific views based on act of particular readers. But, there would definitely be a small change in the format of my postings which will be more in the form of 'Trading Views' rather than formal 'Trading Calls or Recommendations'.

However, in short, trading views with supportive chart patterns will continue to flow as always. But, the decision of trading call based on specific signals like Entry, Exit, Stop loss , etc. will have to be determined by the traders themselves at their own peril.

This may also mean that, I may post multiple trading views generated based on supportive chart signals, at the best of my knowledge. But, traders need to FILTER these views based on their due-diligence or understanding on the matter and act only when they feel that the specific stock view is good enough to take a call for themselves. A number of trading views will keep flowing from my side, you have to choose (filter) as to which few would serve you best as per your profile.


United Phosphorus

Previous week saw an emergence of a bullish reversal indicator in United Phosphorus- 'The Morning Doji Star' Pattern. This pattern consists of determination of the trend based on performance of three candle sticks patterns which indicates that the prevailing down trend has ended and a gradual process of new up trend could be in the offing.

Charts Courtesy: www.icharts.in



The Morning Doji Star

This pattern characterizes the reversal pattern in the prevailing down trend in the counter. The 1st day of the morning star pattern signifies a long red candle indicating the last downside move preceded by several down trending days. The 2nd day is a doji which opens gap-down & closes somewhere near the very same open- indicating a tussle between bulls and the bears in search of a decisive trend. The 3rd day is the bullish confirmation day with a big white candle piercing above the mid-point of the real body of 1st day of the pattern.

In short, we have a stock in a down trend since quite some while and we get a star doji indicating that bears were in control of the downtrend but was duly followed by bulls taking some charge of the situations- meaning bears are losing capacity to drive down the stock further from here. The confirmation of this comes on the 3rd day of the pattern when bulls seems to be in full control of the situation and betting of the reversal in the stock fortunes. However, traders who want further confirmation of this reversal pattern can latch on to clues from the another 2-3 days of trading sentiment in the counter.

Supports & Resistances

Coming back to United Phosphorus and the bullish reversal pattern in this counter, we have witnessed a Morning Doji Star pattern (as marked by Blue Rectangle on above Chart) around September 24, 2009. With the positive stock performance in the following 4-5 sessions of witnessing this pattern, we can conclude that the stock could have indeed bottomed out around 154-156 zone in the near term horizon.

The stock has minor support around 163-164 zone followed by 154-156 at deeper levels. Presuming that this stock view on United Phosphorus has indeed sought a bullish reversal pattern with determination of Morning Doji Star pattern during the last week, we can come to conclusion that the stock has a strong support at 154-156 where the stock could have bottomed out in near term.

The stock has a resistance at 174-175 zone. So, a real bullish confirmation comes above 174-175 levels where traders can bet with conviction. However, the entry and exit strategy to be used for trading in this counter may vary from trader to trader depending upon their risk profile & to some extent market conditions as well. Traders are requested not to take trading calls on each and every stock view presented by me on this blog. Consider all the above views as guide posts with thoughts on the stock and its trend, rather than as a recommendation to Buy/Sell.

Note: The term ‘Trend Reversal’ could have number of implications. One of them being- the prior trend would cease to exist, not necessarily being reversed instantly. Also, a trend reversal is a slow and a gradual process which develops over a period of time with change in sentiment.

Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.

Trading View: JP Hydro & Nifty

Thanks to an eye-opening Comment by a reader in my previous posting related to IDFC, that I realize that posting free calls on a blog is a thankless job. I wonder, as commented by that particular reader, as to whether Technical Analysis is just as good as you want the data to be interpreted. I kept wondering- aren't charts a reflection of the demand-supply scenario in the market? Well, I am not here to discuss about all this as of now. But, one must remember, trading is like a coin. It has two sides- Stop loss and Targets. It is impossible that all trading calls will click.

But, I have come to a conclusion that I will not post calls on this blog. But I shall keep posting my views on the stock or index. I shall present chart view from my side & leave the decision of trading call on the readers themselves who track this blog. The crucial entry, exit, stop loss and trailing stop loss points will have to be determined by the readers themselves. I would be more involved in providing stock ideas and material which could be more of educational in nature & not recommendation to Buy or Sell whatsoever.

Traders are free to trade whenever they feel fit and take their own due-diligent decision to trade depending upon their intellectual to judge the viability of my views.
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Trading View on Jaiprakash Hydro-Power

In the prevailing positive momentum for the markets, have markets given a miss to one of their trading favourite among the momentum stocks i.e., JP Hydro ??

Pennant is a short-term continuation pattern which is characterized by (triangular) consolidation & resumption of the move in the previous trending direction. This pattern also features a sharp decline in volume during the consolidation phase. There are signs that this particular pattern could be emerging on the counter of JP Hydro.

Charts Courtesy: www.icharts.in



Investopedia.com defines Pennant as, "A continuation pattern in technical analysis formed when there is a large movement in a stock, the flagpole, followed by a consolidation period with converging trend lines, the pennant, followed by a breakout movement in the same direction as the initial large movement, the second half of the flagpole."


Without going much into detail regarding the working of the Pennant pattern, as can be seen on the above chart of JP Hydro- the stock has witnessed an up move during the month of July from Rs.65 to Rs.85. However, since then the stock has gone into a long consolidation for the following 2-3 months hinting towards formation of a Pennant pattern.

The consolidation zone typically reflects features of range bound movement with in the converging trend lines backed by declining volumes. The breakout from this long consolidating pattern could herald a rally up to Rs.100-110 in short duration of time. Note: Traders should be cautious if the stock breaks substantially downward below Rs.78 mark.

Traders can use various trading techniques which best suits their risk appetite or judgement profile. One option is to trade once the stock breaks past the upper trend line of the triangle for further confirmation of the emergence of the Pennant pattern in the counter. Second option could be to build long positions around current price with Stop loss at the lower trend line defining downside support.
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Nifty View



In Nifty, as we can see from the above chart that the market is steadily moving up but in a narrow range. I have highlighted two trend lines (blue lines) which is acting as support and resistance for the market on either sides. My view is that if markets were to break past the upper trend line, than we could witness a steeper rally up to Nifty 5250-5450 levels in times to come over shorter duration.

However, currently Nifty is resting very near to the upper trend line of the range which could be a reason to be cautious until we get a thorough breakout from the range. There is a downside support around Nifty 4930-4950 zone. So, vaguely, we can consider nifty with in narrow range of 4930-5125. A bigger market move needs a break past this range with a weekly closing.


Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.

Trading Idea: Buy IDFC with SL of 136/-

Short Term Trading Call

Charts Courtesy: www.icharts.in



Buy: IDFC (Closing Price- Rs.144)
Accumulation Zone: Rs.142-145
Stop Loss (SL): Rs.136/-
Targets: T1 155, T2 170

Stock View: IDFC has been consolidating in a Narrow range of Rs.128 to Rs.135 zone from August 15 to Sept 04 for a period of about 20 days. The stock jumped out of the range at the onset of 2nd week of September only to consolidate lower in the follow up trading sessions until yesterday. However, today the stock seems to have sought an important support around Rs.136 and the stock bounced back from there giving initial signs of stability. The stock also has an important Support at Rs.136 marked by its 50 EMA Trend line.

However, traders should keep in mind that the stock has a minor resistance at Rs.150 mark which is a resistance zone for the stock for past 4 months. On cross over & sustenance above Rs.150 mark backed by strong volumes, this stock seems set for a ride up to Rs.170-180 over next few months.

Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.

Trading Idea: Buy United Phosphorus

SHORT TERM TRADING CALL
Charts Courtesy: www.icharts.in



BUY: United Phosphorus (Closing Price 168)
Accumulation Zone: Rs.165-170
Stop Loss: Rs.158
Targets: T1 Rs.175, T2 Rs.185


Updation of Past Calls:

1) Tata Communication Buy call got active above Rs.520 today.
Stop Loss for the same to be Rs.500, unless any changes intimated.
2) Trail Stop Loss in HDIL Buy call from Rs.280 given earlier to Rs.290.
3) Stop Loss in Orchid Chemicals Buy Call remains unchanged.
4) Trail Stop Loss in Videocon from Rs.210 given earlier to Rs.222.

Note: First Target in both Videocon & Orchid Buy calls got achieved. It was recommended on the blog to Book 30% gains in Videocon & 60% gains in Orchid at levels of first targets.

Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.

Trading Idea: Buy Videocon & Orchid Chemicals

SHORT TERM TRADING CALL

(Click on Charts for better clarity & enlarged view)
Charts Courtesy: http://www.icharts.in/




BUY: Videocon Industries (CMP 225)
Accumulation Zone: Rs.220-228
Stop Loss: Rs.210
Stop Loss (For High Risk Traders): Rs.200
Targets: T1 240, T2 260, T3 275.

Stock View: The stock has witnessed a break out from a broad trading range Rs.140-200 since last 3 months starting from June 2009. The stock has also witnessed a breakout from a narrow trading range of Rs.180-210 for the month of August 2009. A conical pattern was observed since the second week of August indicating indecisiveness among bulls and bears for this stock.

However, a move above this conical pattern since 24th August gives enough hint for an upside breakout from the narrow conial range of last 1 month and the broad trading range seen since 3 months. Also, the move of last couple of days is backed by higher volumes. Traders can accumulate the stock in the range of Rs.220-228 with SL of 210 (SL of Rs.210 for high risk traders) with substantial higher targets as mentioned in the above call. Traders should have courage to ride out the volatilty of highly inflated markets.




BUY: Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (CMP 118)
Accumulation Zone: Small Qty @CMP,
Remaining in Rs.108-114 Zone
Stop Loss: Rs.105
Stop Loss (For Low Risk Traders) : Rs.107
Targets: T1 125, T2 140.


Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.

Trading Idea: Buy HDIL & Tata Comm.

SHORT TERM TRADING CALL:

(Click on Charts for a better & enlarged view)












(Charts Courtesy: http://www.icharts.in/)

BUY: HDIL (CMP 294)
Accumulation Zone: Rs.292-298
Stop Loss (SL): Rs.280
Targets: T1 Rs.315, T2 Rs.330



SIGNAL BASED TRADING CALL















BUY: Tata Communication
Accumulation Zone: Above 520
SL: To be Updated Later (once call gets Active above 520)
Targets: T1 560, T2 590


Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.

Tring!... Tring!... Tring!...

Time is Ripe to Exercise Caution

Tring!... Tring!... Tring!... No, its not a School Bell. Well, not even a Telephone Ring. Than What? May be, an Alarm Bell.

Actually, I just want to convey that stock markets don't ring such 'bells' before they start correcting. They do not provide warning bells stating that, "This is enough mate. Now, pack your bags & stay away from markets." We ourselves have to catch the market signals the cues of which can be in various diferent forms, not necessarily explicit in nature.

Yes! Be cautious... Read this post till last to understand what I mean to say. We may already be in the last stage of the ongoing 'Mini' bull phase which has followed directly from the lower tip of bear market phase. The momentum is strong. Stock are flying high resembling the exuberance of the tip of any bull phase. The momentum may last a bit longer. But, who knows till when? Can you time the exit at the right moment? Not really!... you have to exercise caution & strategise your part-exit plan.

Current Market Scenario:

1) Large-caps are quoting at Expensive Valuations.
2) Mid-caps already catching up & Some even Fully Valued.
3) Small-caps have been moving up from Circuit to Circuit.

Exuberance Levels: High, with Sensex gaining 80% in 3 months.
Nearest Event: Budget & Corporate Results after 1 month.

Part 1: Denial Mode

First the markets recovers from the depression with an all round pessimistic mood and sentiment. Usually, Insurance companies, especially the Bid Daddy L.I.C., keeps munching equity stocks at such times. It plays an important role to support markets at lower levels with the mandate from the Centre. At such time, investors are in denial mode to buy, they think markets will further move down. Then the markets further recover all of a sudden leaving most investors in the lurch. There is a feeling of being left out due to such unexpected rise. They still don't buy aggressively as mood is largely negative.

During this stage, all the counters from different market capitalization are largely under-valued & in over-sold territory.


Part 2: Feeling of being Left Out:

Just as the rally grows into larger proportion investors jump in expecting another big up move. No, the markets still don't go down from there. It rises further to give the feeling of optimism to the cash waiting on side lines. Investors pump-in yet another bout of funds to capture the bullish trend. Regarding Mutual funds, they are the wiser people who entered during the first or second round of euphoria. Foreign funds usually enter aggressively when markets show some signs of positive recovery.

By this stage, Large-cap counters are not under-valued. Though, mid-caps & small-cap are relatively under-valued and in the grip of pessimism.


Part 3: The Real Exuberance

During this stage, the real exuberance is witnessed in terms of buying. Straight gains are made day after day. Positive cash inflow is continuously witnessed with every passing week. Large-cap counters become fully valued during this stage. Still, there is further room for up side in them on the back of momentum.

Mid-caps are the flavour of the season during this stage of market ruled by sheer momentum and exuberance. Small-caps gradually find their feet and they rise the fastest with a series of up circuits on the bourses. Large-cap counters usually rise at a slower pace but their up ward momentum is not completely lost.


Part 4: The Final Countdown:

The last phase of the exuberance is characterized by Analyst visions going forward into future for the company's prospects and earning potential. Large-cap counters start being valued on not current year valuations, but 1 or 2 years down the line. This is the first and perhaps the last sign to exercise complete caution.

During this stage, Mid-caps catch up with their lag to large-cap counters. This stage witnesses participation of the retail traders more actively with the perspective of making some quick gains from the market momentum. Small-caps, usually, are in up circuits with unavailability of sellers on the bourses.

The extra exuberance in the last stage is often forged and supported with new 'logic' that are put forward by the Analyst community such as 'Decoupling Theory', 'Upgraded Fundamentals', 'Strong Potential for the Economy' and so on. The momentum of the last few weeks is attempted to be stretched as much as possible.

Prolific Gains, witnessed in individual stocks, to the extent of whooping 10-15% are notched on an almost daily basis. The proportion of returns which usually take 1 year in Debt instruments like FD, PPF, etc. are usually acquired in time as short as few countable sessions from equity markets. Till when can such times last?


Exercise Discipline & Control:

During this stage, caution should be exercised with utmost discipline, patience and perseverance. Investors would find the situation extremely terrible of being missed-out by huge extent. They have to control the urge of entering the markets at such moments. Traders should apply Strict Stop losses to their each and every trade. If they don't do so, markets will retract in a big way some time or other & at such times traders will be left with their trading favourites which shall eventually turn into papers when their value goes down. When the value starts falling, traders won't feel like exiting their positions at nominal gains or even losses.

The above does not mean to convey that a huge correction is on the anvil. Nor does it mean to say that the markets won't go up any more. It simply is a cautionary posting to put the readers of this blog on a 'Warning' note that valuations are no more cheap as may be 3 months ago. On that note, even a small correction of 10-20% should not be ruled in coming times. The momentum can take markets up- to surprising & unexpected levels, but the crux of the matter is that you won't be able to time out during such exuberant times with ease. Greed takes over from the fear factor during such times of euphoria, from which you have to save yourself swiftly.

Same Old Evergreen Strategy:

The last stage is the hogged by the moment of uncertainty. There is lack of clarity as to what the next big leg of trend would be. Whether markets will stay afloat or give up substantial gains? During such scenarios, my first posting of this blog related to 'Strategy for Investment' would come healthy.

This time, you have to follow 'Sell in small qty on Every Rise' and not 'Buy in Small qty on every Dip'. Minimize your risk with every rally. Accumulate cash with every bout of sell-off you exercise on incremental rallies. The main benefit of using this strategy is, you cut your risk to the extent you sell. But if markets rise, you still tend to benefit from the rally as your major portfolio still remains invested and that you have sold only a fraction of your stocks and portfolio. The money and opportunity that you lose from any potential rally is far less than the benefit that accrues to you for your remaining 'invested' portfolio.

Dated: May 28, 2009
POSITIONAL TRADING CALL:

Reliance Capital (CMP 945)
Buy in 2 Small Tranches:
1st Buy around CMP 930-950/-
2nd Buy around Rs.860-880/-
Stop Loss: 845/- (Closing Basis)
Target Expectation: 1060-1125

High Risk Trading Call:

Ind Bull Real-estate (CMP 215)
Buy Around 215-220/-
Stop Loss: Rs.190/- (Closing Basis)
Target 1: 248/- Target 2: 280/-

Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.

Trading Idea & Strategy: PSU major BHEL

Antriksh Patel has asked a query on L&T and its Prospects until its Results announcement. Presuming from his query that his investment perspective is only until Results announcement for the stock which is 35-45 days away from now, he seems to be having sight on the Short-term prospects of L&T until around Mid-July 2009.

Hi Viral,
I think L&T is slowly and gradually gaining momentum.
Till the results it can touch 1700. What is your say?

For this, I have presented an alternative for short-term trading purpose in a PSU stock - BHEL. In the current situation, L&T may be prone to a small downside before it makes fresh highs. The stock has jumped sharply from Rs.950 before election results were announced to Rs.1350 at today's closing. No doubt, the momentum is strong in the counter and it has shown amazing strength even in the last couple of day's of extreme volatility.

But, here is what i have to say for trading in BHEL and what strategy can be adopted to minimize the risk of trading in this counter with appropriate strategy to be used as follows:

Dear Antriksh,

FROM SHORT-TERM PERSPECTIVE...

L&T could be, indeed, one of the top contenders to benefit from renewed infrastructure spending that may likely be announced during the Union Budget some 35-45 days from now.

But, speaking in terms of price appreciation in last few days in L&T and BHEL, perhaps BHEL is a better contender to benefit from dual reason of Infrastructure & Power sector spending and also Disinvestment prospects in PSU stocks by the Central Government.

Also, L&T at today's closing has still not corrected substantially from its peaks since election rally. Whereas BHEL has given up half the gains witnessed post-election rally to till date as on today's Closing level of Rs.2040/-.

However, BHEL and L&T are both expensive seen in terms of Valuations. But, in short term one can play with BHEL by buying as per below mentioned strategy with view of 30-40 days holding period:

Suppose You wish to invest Rs.16000 for Short-term Trading:
Buy BHEL 5 shares @Rs.2040 (CMP)
Buy BHEL 3 shares @Rs.1850-1900 Range

Once you Buy the stock @Rs.2040, you need not worry whether the stock goes down or up in next few sessions. You can still average at lower levels until Rs.1850-1900 since you have staggered your trading amount of Rs.16000 into 2 parts of Rs.10,000 and Rs.6000.

If the stock goes up after buying the initial quantity of 5 shares @Rs.2040, no need to think about remaining quantity. At least, you have invested 60% of your amount & you'll be rewarded to that extent, even in times of high uncertainty in present times.

Trading Idea for BHEL :

Buy in 2 Tranches at Rs.2050 & Rs.1900
Target 1: Rs.2300
Target 2: Rs.2500
Stop Loss: Rs.1800 (Closing basis)
Time Frame: 30-45 days.

Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.

Traders: Book Gains On Rise

Most of the trading calls reached both their targets as on May 18th and 19th. However, most of the targets were reached on the back of positive surprise on the Political front which was welcomed by the markets with both the hands.

My Blog Post dated April 24, 2009 titled as "Nifty Outlook & Trading Ideas for Next 15 Sessions":

CRUCIAL 200 DMA RESISTANCE:
Now, markets shall take a breather for some time around current levels or within a narrow Nifty range of 200-300 points lower from here as a pull back approach. Then again, markets are likely to re-test Nifty 3450 (for 1 or 2 times) to check its resistance strength. If in final analysis, markets succeed in crossing crucial Nifty 3450 level, we may well be in for a surprise rally towards Nifty 3850-4250. These ultimate targets of Nifty 3850-4250 may well be the highest point of current bear market rally, if we succeed to cross over 3500.

Nifty Traders: Traders can go Long on Nifty in around 3450-3500 range (preferably above 3500 closing) with upside Targets of 3850-4250 & observe a Strict Stop Loss of Nifty 3300 levels. Please note that the Stop Loss to be observed on Closing basis.

Trading Ideas for Upcoming 15 sessions:

1) IDFC: This company from NBFC space has run up smartly from Rs.60 to reach Rs.75-78 range. If IDFC manages to conquer Rs.82 levels as a weekly close, it will graduate swiftly to its next target of Rs.95-109 in a quick period of time on the back of break-out on the upside. CMP Rs.75.
2) BHEL: Heavy Engineering major BHEL can be bought around Rs.1550-1630 with a Target of 1800-1950. Strict Stop Loss of 1500 is a must for trading in this Power Equipment major. CMP Rs.1639.
3) Videocon Industries: Buy Videocn in the range of Rs.105-120 with a quick target of Rs.150-160 with in few sessions. Strict Stop loss for this diversified conglomerate should be placed at Rs.90. CMP Rs.122.
4) Power Finance Corporation: If this Power Finance company sustains above Rs.160 for 2 consecutive days it will witness a break out for Targets of Rs.185-195. Stop loss for this stock can be observed around Rs.140-145. CMP Rs.157.
5) Power Grid Corporation: Power Transmission major PGCIL would witness a break out if it manages to sustain above Rs.105 for next week closing. The stock can later on soar to Rs.120-130 without much patience. Stop Loss Rs.90. CMP Rs.100.
6) L&T: This E&C giant is most likely to cross Rs.1000 & touch Rs.1050-1100 if Nifty manages to sustain above 3500 for next week.The stock will lead the rally along with other heavy weights to prop up the markets from here.

To Read full posting in detail, click below:
Nifty Outlook & Trading Ideas for Next 15 Sessions

Except for Videocon Industries all other stocks have touched its 1st and 2nd Targets on the 15th Session since the posting was made on this blog. Power Grid has just reached near to its 1st target at Rs.118/- as I am publishing this post over here. My suggestion to the Traders who took calls on these calls should book 60-70% gains today itself and cut their risk for their trading bets. However, with the remaining 30-40% held they can ride the ongoing momentum for a bit longer as the trend has turned ultra-positive in very near-term horizon.

In my posting dated May 08, 2009, Trading targets for Suzlon and HCC have also been achieved.

Note: The above posting is only for Traders who took calls based on above recommendations. A separate posting will be sent directed towards Investors and how to approach markets at a later date. Do not confuse this posting with Investment ideas. Right now, even i am reviewing market position and its nature of behaviour.

Remember, in Times of Uncertainty & Indecisiveness…
Strategy for Investment

Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.

Nifty Outlook & Trading Ideas for Next 15 sessions

Nifty Outlook:

Technically, Nifty has established a weekly close above 200 DMA levels which is perched around 3450. Though, for a confirmation of this trend of sustenance of Nifty above crucial Resistance of 200 DMA, we will wait to determine a weekly close above 3500 for the upcoming truncated week.

A weekly close above Nifty 3500 levels would mean an uptrend which could stretch as high as 3850-4250 on the upside. On the downside, Nifty has a strong support at 3300 and 3120. In my previous to previous post dated April 10, 2009 following content was posted for readers on Nifty Technicals:

CURRENT MARKET TECHNICALS:

We have successfully crossed crucial levels of Nifty 3240 which acted as a strong resistance for the last 5 and half months. This level of 3240 proved resistance for 4-5 times in the last few months. Now, the next resistance is at Nifty 3450 level which incidentally is an all important 200 DMA levels.

CRUCIAL 200 DMA RESISTANCE:

Now, markets shall take a breather for some time around current levels or within a narrow Nifty range of 200-300 points lower from here as a pull back approach. Then again, markets are likely to re-test Nifty 3450 (for 1 or 2 times) to check its resistance strength. If in final analysis, markets succeed in crossing crucial Nifty 3450 level, we may well be in for a surprise rally towards Nifty 3850-4250. These ultimate targets of Nifty 3850-4250 may well be the highest point of current bear market rally, if we succeed to cross over 3500.

INTERVAL TIME FOR TRADERS:

Traders can remain cautious around Nifty 3400-3500 levels. They can book some gains around 3400 levels and wait for the volatility and pull back to fall out. They can again retain their long position if Nifty 3500 are crossed over which may engulf a new round of short-term rally. Nifty 2900-2950 should be an absolute Stop Loss for all kind of intermediate Long positions for the trading fraternity.

A 'Contra' call for traders would be to short the Nifty around 3400 levels with a Stop Loss of 3500 & book gains with initial target of 3240-3120.

As mentioned above, the markets faced resistance at Nifty 3410 and pulled back to 3310 for couple of days. Again markets have come back to re-test the crucial 200 DMA resistance and almost managed to sustain with a weekly close above it on the back of strong hold from bulls.

Nifty Traders: Traders can go Long on Nifty in around 3450-3500 range (preferably above 3500 closing) with upside Targets of 3850-4250 & observe a Strict Stop Loss of Nifty 3300 levels. Please note that the Stop Loss to be observed on Closing basis.

Stock Specific Trends:

In the same posting, i have made a narration of few more stock specific trends especially large-caps and mid-caps. Most of these stocks were predicted to have been topped out in short-term unless Nifty makes a fresh up move above its 200 DMA resistance.

SIGNS OF TIRING OUT:

These stocks are expected to take a small breather if the current rally is, in deed, to continue forward even from here: Reliance, Grasim, ONGC, Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto, Tata Steel among large-caps.

All the above stocks except Grasim (which inched a bit higher in last 1 week) seemed largely stuck to their ground as most of them had rallied sharply in the recent run up of markets as a whole. RIL continues to remain perched around Rs.1700-1800 levels, ONGC is stuck around Rs.800-900 and Hero Honda remains bound in 1000-1150 range in spite of better than expected results. Tata Steel made a high of around Rs.290 and slipped to Rs.240 odd only to recover around Rs.260.

Though, these stocks are likely to further their winning streak if Nifty manages to sustain and move forward above 3500 levels. These stocks will slowly move to make higher tops but at a slower pace than other markets laggards.

Dark Horses:

DARK-HORSES FOR SHORT-TERM RALLY:

Stocks to watch out for sharp bounce in the upcoming times are Bajaj Finserv, IDFC, LIC Hsg, Patel Engineering, I.Bull Finance, Videocon Industries, A.B.Nuvo, Thermax, R.Comm, SBI & BHEL. This mix of large-cap & mid-cap stocks have not moved up appreciably as compared to other stocks. And there is every possibility that they move faster to catch-up with their lag against the market on the back of their buoyant fundamentals.

The above writing has presence in my same posting dated April 10, 2009. Bajaj Finserv, LIC Hsg, Thermax, Rcom, SBI and BHEL have moved at a faster clip in the last 15 days of market movement. While SBI has graduated from Rs.1000 to Rs.1300, Bajaj Finserv has rised from Rs.150 levels to Rs.230 levels. LIC Hsg Finance has moved exuberantly from Rs.230 to Rs.340 at yesterday's closing. IDFC has witnessed a sharp run up from Rs.50 to Rs.75 during the period.

In my previous post dated April 15, 2009 on Implication of Satyam Acquisition, a clear cut Sell call was given for Tech Mahindra around Rs.370-380 zone. The stock had slumped to Rs.310 levels before recovering to Rs.340 along with markets.

Trading Ideas for Upcoming 15 sessions:

1) IDFC: This company from NBFC space has run up smartly from Rs.60 to reach Rs.75-78 range. If IDFC manages to conquer Rs.82 levels as a weekly close, it will graduate swiftly to its next target of Rs.95-109 in a quick period of time on the back of break-out on the upside. CMP Rs.75.

2) BHEL: Heavy Engineering major BHEL can be bought around Rs.1550-1630 with a Target of 1800-1950. Strict Stop Loss of 1500 is a must for trading in this Power Equipment major. CMP Rs.1639.

3) Videocon Industries: Buy Videocn in the range of Rs.105-120 with a quick target of Rs.150-160 with in few sessions. Strict Stop loss for this diversified conglomerate should be placed at Rs.90. CMP Rs.122.

4) Power Finance Corporation: If this Power Finance company sustains above Rs.160 for 2 consecutive days it will witness a break out for Targets of Rs.185-195. Stop loss for this stock can be observed around Rs.140-145. CMP Rs.157.

5) Power Grid Corporation: Power Transmission major PGCIL would witness a break out if it manages to sustain above Rs.105 for next week closing. The stock can later on soar to Rs.120-130 without much patience. Stop Loss Rs.90. CMP Rs.100.

6) L&T: This E&C giant is most likely to cross Rs.1000 & touch Rs.1050-1100 if Nifty manages to sustain above 3500 for next week.The stock will lead the rally along with other heavy weights to prop up the markets from here.

7) Investment Idea: Long-term investors can grab Gitanjali Gems if it falls back in the range of Rs.35-55 for some reason. It is a leading mid-cap from Gems & Jewellery space with bright prospects from long-term horizon.

NOTE: Readers are requested to keep any eye on break-out signal levels wherever mentioned specifically in above Trading calls. Like for IDFC, PFC & PGCIL levels to watch out for are Rs.82, Rs.160 & Rs.105 respectively, above which those stocks should witness a break-out. So, short-term trade should be executed only if such signal levels are crossed over.

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